Yesterday , I did a simple tough calculation about General Motors to attempt to get at how much manufacturing job loss one could attribute to overseas competition versus automation and productiveness increases. Various commenters objected that my assumptions have been too simplistic, notably in neglecting the domestic content in overseas autos and the importance of shifts in the supply chain over time.
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Complicating your exercise much more is the fact that folks are inclined to keep their automobiles longer these days than they used to. This is in large part as a result of high quality has gone up, lowering the frequency needed to purchase a new automobile. I think this has far more to do with the declining share of GDP devoted to auto purchases than any of the other factors you mentioned.